Is the Crypto Bull Market Halfway Through? Signs Suggest There’s More to Come

A Glimpse at the Past: Beyond the Bear Market 

The crypto market faced a tough year in 2022. Major companies like FTX, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital collapsed, triggering massive losses. By November 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $15,409, Ethereum (ETH) dropped to $1,065, BNB hit $248.60, and Solana (SOL) tumbled to $7.70. These were the lowest prices in nearly two years. This period marked the end of the bear market. 

Early 2023 saw a strong recovery, suggesting the beginning of a new bull market. Historically, these cycles last about three years, or roughly 1,047 to 1,278 days. With the current cycle at around 640 days, we’re likely halfway through this bull market. 

Bitcoin’s halving event, which usually drives significant price increases, occurred earlier this year. Notably, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the halving, largely due to the approval of spot ETFs. Although recent corrections have occurred, on-chain data indicates Bitcoin has not yet peaked in this cycle, suggesting more potential growth. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin Prices Show Potential for Growth 

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has at least doubled in each halving year. In 2012, it surged by 2.52x, in 2016 by 2.26x, and in 2020 by 4.05x. At the start of 2024, Bitcoin was around $42,208, and it reached $73,750 in March. These numbers suggest the bull cycle isn’t over. For Bitcoin to match past performances, it would need to rise to between $80,000 and $85,000. 

Ethereum (ETH), which outperformed Bitcoin in the 2021 bull run, has not yet matched its past performance. Despite a spot Ethereum ETF approval, its market dominance has dropped from 18.80% in June to 15%. Bitcoin’s dominance, meanwhile, is over 57%. This lag in Ethereum’s performance hints at a delayed altcoin season this cycle. 

Meme Coins and Celebrity Involvement: Bull Market Indicators? 

Despite the underperformance of altcoins, the bull market might still be halfway through, evidenced by notable events like the rise of meme coins and celebrity involvement. In the last cycle, meme coins created unexpected millionaires. This time, Solana and Tron seem to be the preferred platforms. 

Celebrities have also been active in the crypto space. In 2021, figures like Logan Paul, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg joined the NFT trend. Now, stars like Andrew Tate and Iggy Azalea are involved with meme coins, showing continued interest in the market. 

Retail Investor Interest and Long-Term Data 

Retail investor interest is another key indicator of a bull market. Google Trends data shows that searches for “cryptocurrency” hit their highest in 2021 but have been lower this year, suggesting less retail activity. A true bull market sees a surge in retail investors driving demand. The current lower interest implies that this cycle hasn’t peaked yet. 

Another metric to watch is the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which tracks whether long-term holders are making profits or losses. Currently, this metric has dropped from its peak in March, indicating less profit-taking. This is similar to the 2021 cycle when Bitcoin’s price dropped before starting another uptrend. 

More Upside Potential, But Caution Advised 

Despite the quiet market, several indicators suggest the bull market is still ongoing and could push Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins to new highs. However, caution is advised due to the inherent volatility and potential for sudden price swings. If losses persist, the market could shift back to a bear phase. For now, the data suggests we’re still in a bullish trend, with more growth likely ahead.