Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Aptos (APT) will surpass Solana (SOL). He discussed this in an interview with macro analyst Raoul Pal.
Hayes believes Aptos has the potential to become the second largest Layer 1 (L1) blockchain after Ethereum within the next two to three years.
Why Aptos Could Overtake Solana
Hayes thinks Aptos can outperform Solana but didn’t detail the reasons in the interview. He plans to elaborate more in September.
The Rise of Solana
Solana emerged in March 2020, offering solutions to Ethereum’s limitations. It became popular for its scalability, speed, and cost-efficiency. During the DeFi boom, Ethereum struggled with congestion. Solana became a viable alternative.
The launch of memecoins BONK in December 2022 and dogwifhat (WIF) in November 2023 boosted Solana’s visibility. These events marked a shift of memecoin activities from Ethereum to Solana. Memecoins and DeFi platforms were attracted to Solana’s lower transaction costs. However, as Solana’s popularity surged, it also faced network congestion issues.
Aptos’ Stability and Reliability
Aptos, on the other hand, has not experienced downtime since its inception. This makes it a strong and reliable alternative in the digital currency ecosystem. Aptos uses a novel smart contract programming language called “Move,” developed by engineers from Meta Platforms Inc.’s Diem project.
Although Diem was shelved, its technology and expertise now drive Aptos. Aptos aims to be suitable for commercial use and widespread adoption. However, it has not yet achieved widespread adaptation and lacks a popular DeFi ecosystem or major memecoins.
APT Price Analysis
Aptos’s market performance reflects its current challenges. It has dropped 63% from its January 2023 high of $20.39, trading at $7.50 after a significant downtrend from its March peak of $19.48. This decline took APT below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $8.39.
The cryptocurrency also fell below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $9.25, a major resistance level.
APT faced multiple rejections at this threshold, highlighting its importance for any potential bullish reversal. Staying above the year’s lowest price of $7.39 is crucial to avoid further losses.
Comparison of Solana and Aptos
Here’s a comparison of key aspects between Solana and Aptos:
| Feature | Solana | Aptos |
|---|---|---|
| Launch Date | March 2020 | Recent |
| Downtime | Experienced congestion | Zero downtime |
| Key Events | Memecoin launches (BONK, WIF) | Developed from Meta's Diem project |
| Programming Language | Rust | Move |
| Transaction Costs | Lower than Ethereum | Aiming for commercial use |
| Popular DeFi Ecosystem | Yes | No |
| Major Memecoins | Yes | No |
| Market Performance (2023) | Decline from peaks | 63% drop from high |
| Current Trading Price | Higher than Aptos | $7.50 |
Future Outlook
The future of both blockchains depends on their ability to address scalability and congestion issues. Solana needs to maintain its growth and solve network problems. Aptos must gain wider adoption and develop a robust DeFi ecosystem.
Hayes’ prediction suggests that Aptos has a strong foundation and potential for significant growth. However, only time will tell if it can truly surpass Solana.
Disclaimer
FAQ
DeFI stands for decentralized finance, offering open and accessible financial systems built on blockchain technology.
Yield farming involves earning interest by lending or staking cryptocurrencies.
Layer 1 blockchains are the primary networks (e.g., Ethereum), while layer 2 blockchains scale and improve performance on top of them.
