PlanB, the anonymous creator of the Bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow model, has shared a new chart that hints at a potential fourfold increase in Bitcoin’s price. This prediction comes as Bitcoin trades at $60,676, following a 4% gain in the last 24 hours. The big question now is whether BTC could soar to $240,000 by the end of this bull market.
Bitcoin May Mirror Previous Bull Runs
PlanB recently posted a chart on X, showing that Bitcoin’s price has historically surged fourfold whenever it climbed above the 200-week Moving Average (MA). The 200 MA is a key tool in technical analysis, often used to spot long-term trends in cryptocurrencies. When Bitcoin moves above this level, it usually signals that the market is still in a bullish phase.
On the flip side, if Bitcoin drops below the 200 MA, it suggests that the bull market might not be fully confirmed. PlanB highlighted the 2017 bull market, where Bitcoin fell below $4,000 before eventually reaching $17,760. During the 2020-2021 bull run, Bitcoin was around $15,560 in November 2020 but later skyrocketed to $69,000.
Interestingly, each cycle has seen periods of price stagnation, followed by significant gains. If history is any guide, Bitcoin’s recent rise to $73,750 might not be the peak, indicating more room for growth in this cycle.
Is a Bear Market Around the Corner?
If PlanB’s analysis holds true, it contradicts fears that the market is entering a bear phase. PlanB isn’t alone in this view. Griffin Ardern, Head of BloFin Research & Options, said that Bitcoin’s recent weak performance doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is over.
Ardern pointed out that Bitcoin’s annualized implied forward rate remains higher than the risk-free rate. Typically, in a bear market, this rate would be lower, suggesting that the current market sentiment is still bullish.
BTC’s Path to New Heights
Further supporting this bullish outlook is the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which compares the value of spent coins to the realized market capitalization. A high ratio usually signals the end stages of a bull market, while a low ratio suggests a period of consolidation before another run-up.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio has dropped from 0.71% in March to 0.16%, implying that the market could have more upside potential. While Bitcoin might not reach $240,000, the current cycle seems to be in its early bull market stages.
However, if selling pressure increases, Bitcoin could dip below $60,000 again, though this would likely be a temporary setback. The race to the top might just be beginning.
