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Bitcoin’s Price Bottom? Analysis Challenges ‘Black Swan Event’

Bitcoin’s recent price dip has sparked speculation among market observers about how low it could go. From a fresh downturn anticipated as early as April 16 to a potential long-term retreat to $40,000; traders and analysts are weighing in on the future direction of the market.

Bitcoin price trend analysis chart showing potential bottom points and recovery markers.
Source: Coinbackyard

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s recent price decline has prompted speculation among traders and analysts about its potential bottom.
  • Analyst Mark Cullen suggests a possible final downward move to around $59,000 using the Elliott Wave method. This indicates a significant drawdown from recent highs.
  • Matthew Hyland stresses the importance of monitoring Bitcoin’s weekly close, particularly its support at the 10-week simple moving average.
  • Binh Dang offers a longer-term perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin may undergo a reaccumulating phase.
  • Despite acknowledging the potential for deeper corrections, analysts like Dang believe that current market conditions are unlikely to result in panic selling.

As of April 16, Bitcoin’s price stands at around $62,000, after failing to maintain a significant rebound from the $61,000 level. Analyst Mark Cullen suggests that the cryptocurrency could make another push towards $60,000 resistance.

Using the Elliott Wave method, he predicts a possible final downward move to approximately $59,000. Cullen conveyed this analysis to his followers on X, emphasizing the likelihood of this move completing soon.

If Bitcoin were to reach the $59,000 level, it would mark its lowest price since late February, representing a significant drawdown of around 20% from its recent all-time highs.

Some analysts, including Matthew Hyland, are monitoring Bitcoin’s weekly close for insights into the strength of the ongoing pullback. Hyland notes that Bitcoin has lost the support of its 10-week simple moving average (SMA), currently positioned at $64,130.

He emphasizes the importance of the upcoming weekly candle close, suggesting that previous instances of testing this support have presented buying opportunities, with Bitcoin never closing below it.

Insights from CVDD Analysis and Geopolitical Factors

Binh Dang, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, offers a longer-term perspective on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Dang analyzed the adjusted cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) metric; he predicts that Bitcoin could remain at lower levels. This could go on for an extended period before attempting to reclaim its previous highs.

The CVDD metric measures the number of days a coin has been in a wallet when it moves on-chain, multiplied by the current price. Dang suggests that Bitcoin may enter a reaccumulating phase.

Dang accepts the potential for deeper corrections. However, he believes that the current geopolitical factors are unlikely to cause panic. In contrast, that seen during the March 2020 cross-market crash was unparalleled.

Dang identifies the “Phase 1” line on his chart, situated just below $40,000, as the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin’s price in the current market conditions.

In summary, market observers are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price movements, with varying perspectives on its potential trajectory. While some anticipate a final downward move towards $59,000 in the short term; others stress the importance of weekly closing prices and longer-term reaccumulating phases.

April 24, 2024 at 1:00 pm

Updated April 24, 2024 at 1:00 pm


Remember, investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it’s important to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. (Please keep in mind that this post is solely for informative purposes and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.)


A 'Black Swan Event' refers to an unpredictable event that has significant negative consequences. In the context of cryptocurrency, it relates to drastic price movements that are difficult to foresee.

Analysts often use methods like the Elliott Wave, historical data, and support levels to predict potential lows in Bitcoin's price.

The 10-week SMA is a key indicator watched by traders; losing support at this level can suggest a bearish trend ahead.

Traders should monitor the weekly close relative to key moving averages and previous support levels to gauge market sentiment and potential price direction.

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