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Causes Behind Bitcoin’s 11% Price Decline Post-Halving

Bitcoin’s price has dropped noticeably, down about 11% since the latest halving. This might surprise those who expected a surge following the event, given the significant bullish momentum leading up to it.

Graph showing Bitcoin's 11% price decline post-halving.
Source: Coinbackyard

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s price has experienced an 11% decline since the recent halving event.
  • The halving is a scheduled event in Bitcoin’s protocol aimed at controlling its supply to maintain its value over time.
  • Despite briefly surpassing $67,000 post-halving, Bitcoin’s price has gradually decreased.
  • The current cycle differs from past halving cycles due to an extraordinary bull run leading up to the event.
  • Analysts attribute the recent price drop to factors such as fluctuations in the stock market.
  • While some predict further declines, others remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects for the rest of 2024.

Let’s understand what a halving is. Essentially, it’s a scheduled event in Bitcoin’s protocol where the rewards for mining new blocks are halved. This is done to control the supply of Bitcoin, aiming to maintain its value over time.

The halving occurred on April 20, 2024, and at that time, Bitcoin was trading at around $64,000. Right after the halving, there was a brief uptick, with Bitcoin even surpassing $67,000 on April 22. However, since then, the price has gradually declined, slipping below $57,000 by May 1.

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $57,362. This marks a decline of about 7% in the last 24 hours and more than 17% over the past month. The sharpness of this drop may surprise those who expected a rally, as has typically occurred in previous halving cycles.

Historically, Bitcoin has seen post-halving rallies, often taking around a year or so to materialize fully. For instance, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin surged by a staggering 3,000% over 17 months, reaching a peak of $20,000 in December 2017.

However, this time around, things seem a bit different. The lead-up to this halving was marked by an extraordinary bull run, with Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs just before the event. This is a departure from past patterns, making the current cycle unique.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, highlighted this uniqueness, pointing out the unprecedented bull run before the halving. Even with the recent pullback, Bitcoin has seen a 35% increase since the beginning of the year.

Analyst Predictions and Market Outlook

Greenspan also noted that the current economic climate, including fluctuations in the stock market, might have contributed to Bitcoin’s decline. Some crypto analysts, like those at JPMorgan, had anticipated a drop post-halving, with predictions ranging towards $42,000.

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, believes Bitcoin could slide further to $52,000. He attributes much of the recent rally to the influx of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has slowed down considerably in the past month.

Despite the recent dip, some analysts, such as investment researcher Lyn Alden, remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects for the rest of 2024. They cite various factors beyond just halving ETFs in the United States that could potentially propel Bitcoin to new highs.

In summary, while the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price might be unexpected to some, it’s part of the complex dynamics at play in the cryptocurrency market. Factors such as pre-halving bull runs, economic conditions, and changes in investor behavior all contribute to shaping Bitcoin’s price movements.

May 5, 2024 at 5:00 am

Updated May 5, 2024 at 5:00 am


Remember, investing in cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it’s important to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. (Please keep in mind that this post is solely for informative purposes and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.)


A scheduled event where mining rewards are halved to control Bitcoin's supply and maintain value over time.

Market fluctuations, economic conditions, and a significant bull run preceding the event contributed to the unexpected price drop.

Economic conditions, market fluctuations, and predictions from analysts suggesting a potential correction played significant roles.

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